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updated 07/08/14 10:46 AM
Three Scenarios to Watch for
The future of when and how fast interest rates will rise is impacting every credit union—and to some degree will determine the industry’s ability to meet larger objectives being plotted in the current strategic planning season.

“No one can predict the future of interest rates,” said Dwight Johnston, vice president and chief economist for the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues. “You might get lucky and guess right, but there is no clear path, especially with rates already so low.”

Ready for Any Outcome
How does this uncertainty impact your credit union’s planning?

Johnston says that unless a credit union’s management and board have “some great insight” about rates and plan on only one outcome, they’ll have to address the impact on the balance sheet and earnings across multiple outcomes.

“You can focus on budget projections using a consensus forecast, but you’ll need knowledge of what happens under other scenarios to prepare for Plans B and C if the tide turns on rates,” he said.

While there's a consensus forecast for rates the rest of 2014 and through 2015, the arguments for an extreme outcome, whether high or low, have merit, Johnston said. He presents three possible rate scenarios using the 10-year Treasury bond.

“For the past few years the low-rate path was, quite frankly, an easy call to make. You didn’t need to spend much time examining the impact of any other outcome,” he said. “That’s not the case in the coming months.”

Three Interest Rate Scenarios
Johnston gives the following simplified arguments for each interest-rate scenario on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond so credit unions can plan appropriately (click on the accompanying chart). Credit unions can keep this guide in mind as the months ahead unfold:

  • Scenario 1 (low-rate forecast): The economies of Europe and China stumble, slowing down the U.S. recovery to stall speed. Deflation fears keep global interest rates at, or near, historic lows.
  • Scenario 2 (consensus forecast): The economy continues a slow but sustainable recovery, and interest rates begin a slow, steady climb. Stable inflation prevents any sharp increase in rates. The Federal Reserve does not tighten rates until late 2015.
  • Scenario 3 (high-rate forecast): The economy recovers faster than the Fed recognizes. Inflation expectations rise, and the Fed is perceived as behind the curve. The bond market revolts.

Click here for Dwight Johnston's complete interest-rate forecast commentary via the DJ's Economix webpage.

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Delegates visit California
As reported earlier this week in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, a WOCCU delegation from the Dominican Republic visited the League to learn about best practices for running an advocacy program.

3 WAYS TO SUPPORT LOCAL CMN KIDS updated 10/05/15 03:26 PM
Events on CU Day, and at 'REACH'
In the coming weeks, there will be three ways to support your local Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals. First up is Shop for Miracles on Oct. 15. That will be followed by a couple of events at the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ REACH Conference in November in Palm Desert.

PAY TRIBUTE TO THOSE WE HAVE LOST updated 09/30/15 10:41 AM
'In Memory'
During REACH 2015, the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues will once again take a moment to honor and remember credit union leaders who had a significant impact on their credit union or credit union organization and passed away in the last year.

2016 'GAC' ROOM BLOCK OPENS updated 09/29/15 08:48 AM
CUNA-League Event: Feb. 22-25
The Credit Union National Association’s (CUNA) 2016 Governmental Affairs Conference (GAC) room block has officially opened, which means those who plan on attending can reserve their lodging early.

‘RBC STOP-STUDY ACT’ TO BE REVIEWED updated 09/29/15 08:17 AM
Committee Hearing This Week
Tomorrow, the House Financial Services Committee will review H.R. 2769, the Risk Based Capital Stop and Study Act—a bill that would halt the National Credit Union Administration’s (NCUA) risk-based capital proposal until further study is assessed.

NV REP. TITUS SENDS SUPPORT LETTER updated 09/25/15 09:41 AM
Member Business Lending Rule
As reported earlier today in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, members of Congress from the California and Nevada Congressional Delegation continue to show their support for credit unions. This morning, Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) submitted a support letter to the NCUA for their proposed revisions to the member-business lending (MBL) regulation. Titus joins 8 other Members of Congress from our two states who have responded favorably to MBL rule.

Recap of CU Accomplishments
The California Credit Union League reported a successful year for credit unions as the California Legislature adjourns for the 2015 legislative session. The League advanced data security legislation, helped defeat two high-profile bills that would’ve been detrimental to credit unions, and garnered several other legislative accomplishments during the past year.

RISK-BASED CAPITAL 2 updated 09/18/15 11:09 AM
Rep. Vargas Leads New Comments
As recently reported in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, last week on Capitol Hill, Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Chula Vista) led 11 of his colleagues from California and Nevada in sending a letter to the NCUA raising on-going concerns with the agency's risk- based capital (2) proposal. The Vargas letter was initiated by a request from the CA & NV Leagues and was advocated as a top priority during the Leagues' Hike the Hill to Washington, D.C. last week.

NCUA Redefines Small CUs updated 09/18/15 10:17 am
Threshold Raised to $100MM in Assets
The NCUA Board voted unanimously in favor of four supervisory actions Thursday, including one that will change the definition of “small entity” in the Regulatory Flexibility Act from credit unions with less than $50 million in assets to credit unions with less than $100 million in assets.

At its open board meeting, the agency first approved the expansion of the community charter for the $342 million Charlotte Metro Federal Credit Union in Charlotte, N.C., to include 10 counties in the Charlotte metro area. The credit union previously served Mecklenburg County only.

Increased CA/NV Backing of H.R. 1188
As reported earlier today in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, the California and Nevada delegations have made big gains in terms of support for H.R. 1188, legislation to raise the member business lending cap.

NEW WCMS TRUSTEES updated 09/17/15 02:52 PM
Janclaes, Rivera Joining Board
Partners FCU President and CEO John Janclaes and SkyOne FCU President and CEO Eileen Rivera will be joining the Western CUNA Management School (WCMS) Board of Trustees.

CU LEADERS MEET WITH ASM. BILL DODD updated 09/16/15 09:28 AM
Address Current/Upcoming Legislation
As recently reported in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, Travis Credit Union hosted a gathering with Assemblyman Bill Dodd (D-Napa) the team at Travis educated Asm. Dodd on their suite of financial literacy and community empowerment programs to help all including the underserved. The group also addressed current and upcoming legislative issues impacting credit unions including data security, EMV implementation, PACE lending reform, and state charter enhancements.

'HIKE THE HILL' MAKES IMPACT FOR CUs updated 09/15/15 12:12 PM
Plus, CU T-Shirt PAC Fundraiser
Last week credit unions from California and Nevada "hiked the hill" in the halls of Congress, advocating for regulatory relief, support of the National Credit Union Administration’s (NCUA) member business lending rule, and other important items.

Officials Listen to CU Leaders
The second day of last week’s “Hike the Hill” event in Washington, D.C. was devoted to regulatory issues, where credit union leaders met with representatives from the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

CUs GO CASUAL FOR KIDS updated 09/14/15 12:58 PM
Miracle Jeans Day Nets Money for CMN
On Sept. 9, staff at credit union branches throughout California and Nevada traded in their normal work attire for jeans—and raise money for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals. It was all part of Miracle Jeans Day—a day set aside to go casual for kids.

CUs ACTIVATE FIRE RELIEF FUNDS updated 09/14/15 12:22 PM
Monies to Help California Victims
Several fire relief funds administered by credit unions, the California Credit Union League, and other organizations have been created to help communities ravaged by the Valley Fire in Middletown, CA (90 miles north of San Francisco) and other fires in Northern California.

LEGAL FIGHT ON CAs SURCHARGE BAN updated 09/14/15 11:14 AM
Credit Unions Represented
As recently reported in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, last week CUNA filed an amicus brief in support of California Attorney General Kamala Harris’ defense of the CA law prohibiting merchants from imposing a surcharge on consumers who chose to use a credit card in lieu of payment by cash, check or similar means.

Session Ends with Passage of Resolution AJR 25
As recently reported in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, both houses of the California legislature adjourned their regular session for the year on Saturday, September 12. The Senate and the Assembly are gone until January unless they decide to convene for a special extraordinary session to meet on healthcare and transportation funding.

SOCIAL MEDIA PLAN = LOAN GROWTH updated 09/11/15 12:09 PM
Contribute To The Bottom Line
Explore a proven social media plan that has been used by credit unions nationwide to significantly grow their loan portfolios and contribute to the bottom line.

NCUA Chair Sends Response Letters
As recently reported in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, Debbie Matz, Chair of the National Credit Union Administration has begun sending replies to the 8 Representatives of the California Congressional Delegation who wrote letters in support for the proposed member-business lending rule.

GET READY TO CRASH THE GAC 2016 updated 09/10/15 12:31 PM
Application Deadline October 31
Represent your credit union and the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues at Crash the GAC 2016. The Cooperative Trust, in partnership with Credit Union National Association (CUNA), is now accepting applications for Crash the GAC 2016. Those interested in the program—which provides scholarships for up-and-coming credit union professionals to attend the CUNA Governmental Affairs Conference—must submit their applications by October 31, 2015. New this year, applicants will be required to submit a 60 second video instead of an essay.

Harmful Bill Thwarted
As recently reported in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, the League's advocacy team defeated SB 308 (Wieckowski D-Fremont) which would have dramatically increased the amount of assets a debtor could shield through bankruptcy leaving credit unions and their members holding the bag. The bill received only 21 votes on the Assembly floor vote—20 votes short of what the bill needed for passage. The League's advocacy team will continue to monitor this and other legislation through the last day of this year's legislative session on September 11th.

Foundation Board Nominations Open updated 09/10/15 03:13 PM
Seeking Nominations for Three Seats
The National Credit Union Foundation (the Foundation) is currently seeking nominations for three board seats. Volunteers serve up to three terms of three years each on the Foundation Board, as long as they are re-nominated by the Foundation Nominations Committee and re-elected by the Foundation Board.

As recently reported in the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues’ Advocacy Blog, this morning in Washington D.C., credit union leaders met with representatives from the NCUA and CFPB, continuing our message of regulatory relief.