INTEREST RATE FOCUS: CUs CAN PREPARE
updated 07/08/14 10:46 AM
Three Scenarios to Watch for
The future of when and how fast interest rates will rise is impacting every credit union—and to some degree will determine the industry’s ability to meet larger objectives being plotted in the current strategic planning season.
“No one can predict the future of interest rates,” said Dwight Johnston, vice president and chief economist for the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues. “You might get lucky and guess right, but there is no clear path, especially with rates already so low.”
Ready for Any Outcome
How does this uncertainty impact your credit union’s planning?
Johnston says that unless a credit union’s management and board have “some great insight” about rates and plan on only one outcome, they’ll have to address the impact on the balance sheet and earnings across multiple outcomes.
“You can focus on budget projections using a consensus forecast, but you’ll need knowledge of what happens under other scenarios to prepare for Plans B and C if the tide turns on rates,” he said.
While there's a consensus forecast for rates the rest of 2014 and through 2015, the arguments for an extreme outcome, whether high or low, have merit, Johnston said. He presents three possible rate scenarios using the 10-year Treasury bond.
“For the past few years the low-rate path was, quite frankly, an easy call to make. You didn’t need to spend much time examining the impact of any other outcome,” he said. “That’s not the case in the coming months.”
Three Interest Rate Scenarios
Johnston gives the following simplified arguments for each interest-rate scenario on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond so credit unions can plan appropriately (click on the accompanying chart). Credit unions can keep this guide in mind as the months ahead unfold:
LEAGUES SUPPORT RBC STUDY ACT updated
06/26/15 02:09 PM
Submits Letter to Representatives
On June 25, California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues CEO Diana Dykstra sent a support letter to representatives Stephen Fincher (R-TN) and Dennis Heck (D-WA), the authors of H.R. 2769, the Risk Based Capital Study Act.
CA CUs GAIN MORT. MARKET SHARE updated
06/23/15 11:11 AM
Noticeable Rise Since 2009
California is no exception to the rule as credit unions nationwide continue gaining substantial market share in the competitive space for first mortgages—a trend beginning six years ago on the heels of the financial crisis.
TILA/RESPA NEW RULE DELAYED updated
06/17/15 03:05 PM
Postponed until Oct. 1, 2015
The California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues confirmed with the office of Congressman Brad Sherman: "Richard Cordray, Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has heard from many that want to delay the effective date, or at least the rigorous enforcement of, the new TILA/RESPA form known as the TILA/RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) form. He has reported that he will be delaying the effective date until Oct. 1, 2015. This is partly due to some internal details and partly due to many of us that saw the need for a delay.”
BILL ADOPTS CUNA/CU RBC CONCERNS updated
06/17/15 03:01 PM
NCUA Makes Proposal Revisions
Language was adopted today by the House Appropriations Committee via voice vote that reflects the concerns the Credit Union National Association (CUNA) and credit unions have regarding the National Credit Union Administration’s (NCUA) effort to impose a risk-based capital (RBC) guideline for credit unions
CU LEADERS PUSH DATA SECURITY IN CA updated
06/16/15 11:11 AM
'Connect For The Cause' a Success
More than 3,000 letters from credit union supporters were sent to California state legislators last week in support of Assembly Bill 83 (AB 83).
GREAT TIME TO BE A CREDIT UNION? updated
06/16/15 09:36 AM
Conference: Employees, Millennials, and More
Is it a great time to be associated with credit unions? Based on yesterday’s gathering of leaders in the industry, the answer is an overwhelming “yes”—but with a caveat.
NCUA TO DISCUSS PROPOSED MBL RULE updated
06/12/15 03:06 PM
Other Important Agenda Items Scheduled
The National Credit Union Administration board has a full agenda scheduled for its June 18 meeting, with a proposed member business lending (MBL) rule slated for discussion.
VISA: CUs CAN NAME RETAILERS updated
06/11/15 09:40 AM
Leagues’ Set the Record Straight
Visa has responded to the Leagues’ written inquiry to Visa whether or not credit unions are able to name retailers when reissuing payment cards, following a data breach. Visa clarified there is neither a rule or nor contractual obligation that requires financial institutions to withhold the name of a breaching retailer.
DIVERSITY STANDARDS ISSUED FOR FIs updated
06/10/15 10:49 AM
Regulators Issue Diversity Standards
policy statement establishing joint standards for assessing diversity policies and practices of the institutions they regulate." rows="5" cols="100" WRAP="physical">The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) and federal banking regulators Tuesday issued their final interagency policy statement establishing joint standards for assessing diversity policies and practices of the institutions they regulate.
DATA BILL HEADS TO CALIFORNIA SENATE updated
06/09/15 10:14 AM
Committee to Review AB 83
The California Credit Union League is advocating for Assembly Bill 83 (AB 83)—data security legislation at the state level which has already passed the California State Assembly with overwhelming support. It is now headed to the Senate Judiciary Committee for its first hearing.
CO-OP SHARED BRANCH SURPASSES 5,300 updated
06/09/15 10:10 AM
More Than Bank of America
With 5,341 branches, CO-OP Shared Branch is now the nation’s third largest network of financial institution branches, according to data drawn from the FDIC—surpassing Bank of America’s 5,244 branches.
CUs CAN IDENTIFY RETAILERS IN BREACH updated
06/09/15 08:46 AM
MasterCard Clears Misconception
Electronics payment network MasterCard has responded to an inquiry by Diana Dykstra, president and CEO of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues, regarding whether credit unions can identify a merchant responsible for a data breach, and if such action is rule- bound or under contractual obligation.
CONSUMER COMPLAINT PROCESS IMPROVED updated
06/09/15 06:09 AM
Also, NCUA Town Hall Webinar
The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) has issued Letter to Credit Unions 15-CU-04, which describes recent changes to streamline the agency’s consumer complaint handling process.
CA CU Leaders Meet Officials updated
06/03/15 04:27 PM
Credit Union Leaders Visit Elected District Officials
In California this week, credit union leaders in Northern and Southern regions continued ongoing advocacy efforts of cultivating relationships with elected officials.
NEVADA BILLS HIGHLIGHT CU SUCCESS updated
06/02/15 11:16 AM
State Legislature Adjourns
With the Nevada Legislature adjourning for the 2015 legislative session, the Nevada Credit Union League reports it was a successful year for credit unions.
CREDIT UNIONS HIT RECORD DEPOSITS updated
06/02/15 09:30 AM
California Leads the Way
California credit unions most likely hit a record in deposits—nearly $132 billion—as credit unions nationwide reported more than $1 trillion in these accounts as of the first quarter this year.
CUs BOOST LENDING, INVESTMENTS updated
06/02/15 02:57 PM
Loan Delinquencies Fall NCUA Reports
According to the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), federally-insured credit unions focused more on lending and less on investments to generate income during the first quarter of 2015.
GRASSROOTS RECAP: FIRST HALF OF 2015 updated
05/26/15 10:56 AM
California CUs Reach Out to Legislators
It’s evident California and Nevada credit union leaders have been active during the first half of 2015 in reaching out to state and federal legislators on both sides of the aisle to reinforce the credit union philosophy, including several district meetings, annual events, and visits to offices.
GOLF TOURNEY RAISES 68k FOR PAC updated
05/22/15 11:17 AM
Record Amount Contributed to Cause
More than 150 credit union CEOs, executives, professionals, and industry vendors took part in the 2015 Multi-Chapter PAC Golf Tournament in Valencia, CA last week, raising more than $68,000 for the California Credit Union League’s Political Action Committee.
Target/MC Settlement Fails updated
05/22/15 10:16 AM
Target/MC Settlement Fails
Target's $19 million proposed settlement with MasterCard failed to receive the required 90% participation rate from issuers, meaning the settlement will not happen, according to an announcement from MasterCard and one of the attorneys representing five card issuers fighting the settlement.
CU Direct Acquires Intuvo updated
05/22/15 10:02 AM
CU Direct-Intuvo Deal Reaches for 'Holy Grail' of Indirect Lending
The oft-repeated complaint by credit unions that members brought in through indirect auto loans are difficult to make "real" members has been addressed by CU Direct's purchase of Intuvo, a marketing automation software company.
CUES Next Top CU Exec Challenge updated
05/20/15 09:45 AM
Nominate a Standout Future Leader for the 2015 CUES Next Top Credit Union Exec Challenge
The industry’s first competition recognizing the incredible young credit union leaders is back for year number six! The search is on for the 2015 CUES Next Top Credit Union Exec. This program for the industry’s future leaders is powered by Currency and in partnership with DDJ Myers.
LEAGUES AND CONGRESS SEEK CLARITY updated
05/19/15 09:17 AM
Identifying Merchants After a Breach
California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues President and CEO Diana Dykstra has written to the general counsels of Visa and MasterCard seeking official guidance as to whether credit unions can identify a merchant responsible for a data breach.