Slowdown in Local CU Loan Growth is a Mixed Picture

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A sizeable portion of locally headquartered California and Nevada credit unions’ lending-growth pipeline that swelled at a breakneck pace from 2016 – 2018 was showing signs of a major slowdown as of late March (see 16 regional snapshot reports at the bottom of this article).

New and used vehicle loans in both states are the main culprit, and particularly credit cards in Nevada. These borrower products are sensitive to changes in short-term interest rates in the marketplace.

However, other credit union loan growth has only slightly moderated or even remained steady. First mortgages and credit cards in California were somewhat slowing (or actually flatlining depending on the local region), but home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and second mortgages were holding their own or even expanding. In Nevada, growth in both first mortgages and HELOCs/second mortgages remained steady.

Lending Growth’s Slowdown Has Arrived—but Exactly Where?
California’s regional lending downtrend (1Q 2019 versus 1Q 2018) is showing up in the following geographies and loan categories (slower-paced growth):

  • First mortgages: Bay Area (nine counties); South Central Coast (three counties).
  • Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)/second mortgages: Bay Area (nine counties); Inland Empire (two counties); South Central Coast (three counties).
  • New auto loans: Bay Area (nine counties); Central Valley (seven counties); Northern California (seven counties); Sacramento County; San Diego County.
  • Used auto loans: Bay Area (nine counties); Central Valley (seven counties); Los Angeles County; Northern California (seven counties); Sacramento County; San Diego County.
  • Credit cards: Inland Empire (two counties); Los Angeles County; San Diego County; South Central Coast (three counties).

Nevada’s regional lending decline (1Q 2019 versus 1Q 2018) is materializing in the following geographies and loan categories (slower-paced growth):

  • First mortgages: Northern Nevada.
  • Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)/second mortgages: (none).
  • New auto loans: Southern Nevada.
  • Used auto loans: Northern Nevada; Southern Nevada.
  • Credit cards: Northern Nevada; Southern Nevada.

Areas Where Lending Growth is Steady—or Even Gaining Steam
California’s regional flatlining/upswings (1Q 2019 versus 1Q 2018) are as follows:

  • First mortgages: Central Valley (seven counties); Eastern Sierras (two counties); Inland Empire (two counties); Los Angeles County; North Central Coast (three counties); Northern California (seven counties); Orange County; Sacramento County; San Diego County; Santa Cruz County.
  • Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)/second mortgages: Central Valley (seven counties); Eastern Sierras (two counties); Los Angeles County; North Central Coast (three counties); Northern California (seven counties); Orange County; Sacramento County; San Diego County; Santa Cruz County.
  • New auto loans: Inland Empire (two counties); Los Angeles County; North Central Coast (three counties); Orange County; Santa Cruz County; South Central Coast (three counties).
  • Used auto loans: Inland Empire (two counties); North Central Coast (three counties); Orange County; Santa Cruz County; South Central Coast (three counties).
  • Credit cards: Bay Area (nine counties); Central Valley (seven counties); North Central Coast (three counties); Northern California (seven counties); Orange County; Sacramento County; Santa Cruz County.

Nevada’s regional flatlining/upswings (1Q 2019 versus 1Q 2018) are as follows:

  • First mortgages: Southern Nevada.
  • Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)/second mortgages: Northern Nevada; Southern Nevada.
  • New auto loans: Northern Nevada.
  • Used auto loans: (none).
  • Credit cards: (none).

Localized 1Q 2019 Snapshot Reports
Click each region in California to view localized year-over-year credit union trends (1Q 2019):

Click each region in Nevada to view localized year-over-year credit union trends (1Q 2019):

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