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1M Residents Gone: Foreign Immigration Slows & Others Leave

Between the revolving door of births, deaths, foreign immigration, U.S. in-migration and domestic out-migration, California lost more than 1 million residents between July 2019 and January 2023 according to figures released this week by the California Department of Finance.

The state’s expert demographers say a record-high 39.96 million residents called the Golden State “home” in mid-2019, but as of January 2023 that number declined to 38.94 million people (a loss of -1.02 million). What’s interesting is: This loss would have been even greater if not for the stable birth rate, lower death rate, and a mini-rebound in foreign migration particularly during January 2022 – January 2023.

“The primary driver of the state’s population loss has been Californians moving to other states, like Texas, Nevada, Idaho or Oregon, according to Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California,” states a New York Times article. “Between July 2021 and July 2022, the net movement out of California was a record 407,000 people.”

The article also states several trends that were “made worse” — particularly from late 2019 to early 2021 — that contributed to the state’s continuing decline, including “a higher-than-normal death rate, a falling birthrate, and a drop in international migration.”

These large-scale demographic trends are something to take note of. In fact, between July 2021 and July 2022 the state experienced its highest 12-month negative out-migration on record — about -407,000 people.

“California came right up to 40 million (in 2019),” Johnson said in the article. “And then we inched back from it, and now we’ve inched back quite a ways from it — and it could be many years until we get there, if we ever do.”

‘Population Decline’: CA Department of Finance
The report contains preliminary year-over-year January 2023 and revised January 2021 and January 2022 population data for California cities, counties, and the state. These estimates are based on information through January 2023. Significant changes over the year include:

  • Population growth slowed but remained positive in the interior counties of the Central Valley and the Inland Empire, while most counties saw declines, including every coastal county except San Benito (0.2 percent).
  • Only two counties had growth above a half of a percent: Madera (0.6 percent) and Yuba (0.6 percent), due to housing gains. The next largest in percentage growth were San Joaquin (0.4 percent), Merced (0.4 percent), and Imperial (0.4 percent) counties.
  • Forty-six of the state’s 58 counties lost population. The 10 largest percentage decreases were: Lassen (-4.3 percent), Del Norte (-1.3 percent), Plumas (-1.2 percent), Santa Cruz (-1 percent), Marin (-1 percent), Tehama (-1 percent), Napa (-1.0 percent), Lake (-0.9 percent), Monterey (-0.8 percent), and Los Angeles (-0.8 percent).
  • The state’s three most populous counties all experienced population loss: Los Angeles declined by 73,293 persons (-0.75 percent), San Diego by 5,680 persons (-0.2 percent), and Orange by 14,782 persons (-0.5 percent).
  • The top five cities where housing production drove population growth include: Paradise (24.1 percent) in Butte County, Lathrop (11.1 percent) in San Joaquin County, Duarte (6.6 percent) in Los Angeles County, Wheatland (4.6 percent) in Yuba County, and Shafter (4.3 percent) in Kern County.

County Housing Highlights
Highlights from California counties:

  • Yuba had the highest housing growth (2.3 percent) of all counties, followed by: Placer, Butte, Madera, San Joaquin, Yolo, Alameda, San Benito, Merced, and Imperial.
  • Twelve counties gained housing at or above 1.0 percent.
  • One county lost housing: Mariposa due to a wildfire in 2022.
  • Ranked by net housing gains, Los Angeles (19,556), San Diego (7,034), Oakland (4,005), San Francisco (2,823), and Unincorporated Riverside County (2,106) added the most housing units in 2022.
  • Larger densely populated urban areas built most of the multi-family housing throughout the state. Los Angeles led the state gaining 12,074 multi-family units, comprising 61.7 percent of their net housing growth, followed by San Diego (4,568 for 64.9 percent), Oakland (3,880 for 96.9 percent), and San Francisco (2,573 for 91.1 percent).
  • Conversely, single family housing is more likely to be built further inland in typically more suburban cities. Cities with a high proportion of single family growth include: Roseville (100 percent single family), Santa Clarita (100 percent single family), Fresno (91.7 percent single family), and Irvine (71 percent single family).

Other Numbers in the Spotlight
The following was of note:

  • 356 cities lost population, while 125 gained population and one had no change.
  • Of the ten largest cities in California, only three gained population: Sacramento had the largest percentage gain in population (0.2 percent, or 1,203) followed by Bakersfield (0.2 percent, or 882) and Fresno (0.1 percent, or 599).
  • Accessory dwelling unit production increased by 60.6 percent, with the state adding 20,638 ADUs in 2022.
  • Group quarters represent 2.4 percent (926,000) of the total state population. This population includes those living in college dormitories (269,000) and in correctional facilities (168,000). In 2022, California’s group quarters population increased by 11,000 people or 1.2 percent. The college dormitory population grew by 16,000 (6.2 percent). Correctional facilities declined in population in 2022 by 4,200 people (-2.5 percent) across federal, state and local facilities. As college dormitory populations continue to return to a post-pandemic normal, several jurisdictions saw significant gains in population due to this population. The City of Arcata in Humboldt County grew by 4.1 percent due to a 45.1 percent increase at Cal Poly Humboldt. The City of Marina in Monterey County grew by 2.5 percent due to a 12.6 percent increase at California State University at Monterey Bay.

10 Largest CA Cities’ Population Change (January 2022 – January 2023)

  • Los Angeles — 3,766,109 (-1 percent).
  • San Diego — 1,368,395 (-0.3 percent).
  • San Jose — 959,256 (-0.5 percent).
  • San Francisco — 831,703 (-0.6 percent).
  • Fresno — 543,428 (0.1 percent).
  • Sacramento — 518,161 (0.2 percent).
  • Long Beach — 458,222 (-0.4 percent).
  • Oakland — 419,556 (-0.5 percent).
  • Bakersfield — 408,373 (0.2 percent).
  • Anaheim — 328,580 (-2.2 percent).

10 CA Cities Under 300,000 with Largest Numeric Change (January 2022 – January 2023)

  • Santa Ana — 299,630 (-4,628).
  • Lathrop — 35,080 (3,505).
  • San Bernardino — 223,230 (2,716).
  • Menifee — 110,034 (2,623).
  • Oxnard — 197,477 (-2,362).
  • Seaside — 29,790 (-2,325).
  • Beaumont — 56,590 (2,241).
  • Ontario — 180,717 (2,035).
  • Manteca — 88,803 (2,019).
  • Santa Clara — 132,476 (2,014).

10 Fastest Growing CA Cities with Populations Over 30,000 (January 2022 – January 2023)

  • Lathrop — 35,080 (11.1 percent).
  • Beaumont — 56,590 (4.1 percent).
  • Brea — 48,184 (2.6 percent).
  • Menifee — 110,034 (2.4 percent).
  • Manteca — 88,803 (2.3 percent).
  • Placentia — 52,507 (2.3 percent).
  • Lincoln — 52,313 (2.2 percent).
  • West Sacramento — 54,187 (2.1 percent).
  • Delano — 51,727 (1.9 percent).
  • Oakley — 44,995 (1.7 percent).

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