As CU Lending Plateaus, CA and NV Localities Play a Role

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Across a handful of local regions within 13 different geographies of California and Nevada, the pace of auto lending growth at many credit unions is either slowing down or growth is outright sliding into negative territory.

Mortgages are mostly on the upswing, but home equity loans remain a mixed picture. Credit cards and personal loans are still growing to an extent, with some noticeable caveats.

From Northern California to San Diego, and Las Vegas to Reno, local credit unions that are members of the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues are starting 2020 by charting their course using the Leagues’ latest Third-Quarter 2019 CU Regional Snapshot Reports on members, loans, deposits, and operations.

A noticeable portion of California and Nevada-based credit unions' lending-growth pipeline has been slowing down or even contracting over the past 6 – 12 months depending on the product and geography, while other categories have only slightly moderated or even stayed steady.

To some extent, the Leagues’ ongoing local/regional economic forecast news coverage reveals “why” (view the Your Economy—Your Credit Union web page for more information). While not anticipated to enter into a recession anytime soon, local economies — intertwined with the business cycle — are affecting loan-and-deposit trends in unique ways.

“Interest rates falling again in 2019 and perhaps remaining low is likely to support mortgage lending and refinance in 2020,” said Dr. Robert Eyler, economist at Sonoma State University and board member of Redwood CU. “Auto lending may also see a slight bounce back up, but the trend is for a slow decline. In urban California and Nevada, mortgage loans may slow due to the relatively high housing prices and some buyer fatigue — but suburban and rural California and Nevada are forecasted to pick up that slack. At this stage of the economic cycle, the suburban and rural areas become the centers of new growth.”

Below, each local snapshot report provides year-over-year patterns in growth (or contraction), outstanding balances, and a strategic picture of what’s happening across each state:

California Trends (3Q 2019)
Regional analysis grouped by county or larger area: 

Nevada Trends (3Q 2019)
Regional analysis grouped by county or larger area:

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